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Antarctica’s ship capacity grew faster than its pool of experienced guides, and veterans say that’s changing what guests can safely do. The industry disputes that standards have slipped, but no single authority can cap growth on a continent governed by consensus.
Antarctica is a bucket-list destination that more people are ticking off. As remote trips get easier to book and wealthy travelers chase rarer experiences, operators have added ships to meet demand. Some veteran guides say the workforce hasn’t kept up.
Some 8,000 tourists visited Antarctica in the early 1990s. That rose to about 122,000 in the 2023–24 season, according to the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO). If visitor numbers continue to grow at this rate, one forecast charts a near-fourfold increase in 10 years to over 450,000 by the 2033–2034 season.
Fleets have grown with demand. Lindblad Expeditions had two polar ships in 2019, with two more under construction; both have since entered service. Viking currently has two expedition ships suitable for the polar regions, per its filings, and two on order.
Many of those ships were ordered before the Covid-19 pandemic, said Jonathan Zaccaria, a s
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