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Crypto traders are pricing China's largest memory chipmaker, ChangXin Memory Technologies, at levels that would make it the most valuable company listed on the mainland, days before its record Shanghai debut.
Crypto startup Trade.xyz offers the CXMT-linked contract on Hyperliquid , a decentralized derivatives exchange, enabling investors to speculate on the chipmaker's valuation ahead of its official debut.
The perpetual futures contract tracking CXMT traded near $6.35 per share on Hyperliquid on Thursday, after it peaked recently at $8.60, just days before the chipmaker's blockbuster listing in Shanghai next Monday. CXMT didn't immediately respond to a request for comment about the valuation.
The current price implies a market capitalization of roughly $425 billion, or about 2.9 trillion yuan — which would make it more valuable than Industrial and Commercial Bank of China , the mainland's largest listed company at roughly 2.56 trillion yuan.
The offer price was initially set at 8.66 yuan ($1.28) per share , giving the company a valuation of just 579 billion yuan at listing, which would still make it the biggest IPO in the tech-oriented STAR market's history.
Hyperliquid's perpetual contracts are derivatives that allow traders to speculate on various assets, such as crypto, commodities, and equities, without holding the underlying asset.
The outsized premium was fueled in part by offshore investors who, locked out of one of the world's most anticipated listings, turned to crypto rails to build a parallel market for the Chinese chipmaker. The Shanghai debut is effectively closed to foreigners, and even mainland retail investors face steep barriers to the STAR market, which requires a 500,000 yuan account balance and two years of trading experience.
Analysts say the premium reflects scarcity of access as much as conviction in the underlying business.
"A market like this isn't valuing the company; it's forecasting where the price of the stock might open," said Eric Chen, co-founder and chief executive officer of Web3 finance firm Injective Labs.
Given how Chinese IPOs are typically priced, and the thin initial float, a strong debut is a reasonable expectation, he said — but with most global investors unable to access the underlying shares and few liquid venues to short the stock, the price reflects the most optimistic participants.
"Part of the premium is a forecast," Chen said. "Part of it is simply what the world will pay for exposure it can't get directly in the equities market."
The listing of the world's fourth-largest DRAM memory chipmaker also comes amid a historic memory upcycle, with AI-driven demand and a global supply shortage lifting prices across the industry. The company is set to raise up to $8.6 billion in what would be Asia's largest IPO this year.
Crypto-native platforms are increasingly serving as informal price discovery for assets investors can't otherwise reach — pre-IPO names, restricted markets, off-hours trading — and some early contracts have closely tracked eventual opening prices, Chen said. "When that path is limited, it should be read as a gauge of demand, not a precise pricing event."
The record so far is mixe…