In a striking development that raises many questions within political and economic circles, the head of the Russian Central Bank has been absent from public appearances for weeks, amid reports of potential disagreements with the Kremlin regarding the war in Ukraine.
This absence comes at a sensitive time for Russia, where economic and military pressures are increasing; making any change in decision-making positions closely monitored.
The head of the Russian Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, has not appeared publicly for about three weeks, while reports indicate that she informed President Vladimir Putin of her intention to resign if the war in Ukraine escalates, according to Time magazine.
Nabiullina is widely regarded as the architect of the resilience of the Russian economy during the war; she has contributed to turning it into what resembles a "financial fortress" capable of absorbing the effects of Western sanctions.
Nabiullina, who previously held the position of Minister of Economy and was an advisor to the Kremlin, has been heading the Central Bank since 2013, and she is said to enjoy significant trust from Putin due to her role in managing complex economic crises that the country has faced in recent years.
Her last public appearance was on May 28, before she missed the economic forum held this month in St. Petersburg, a significant event through which the Kremlin sought to project an image of economic stability, despite security challenges including drone attacks on the city by Ukrainian forces. She also missed a meeting with Putin dedicated to discussing inflation and interest rates, where she had no participation recorded in the memorial service for one of her advisors.
Nabiullina's third term is scheduled to end in June next year; Russian law stipulates a maximum number of terms for this position. However, speculations have emerged in recent months regarding the potential amendment of this law to allow her to continue, due to Putin's heavy reliance on her expertise.
According to a source quoted by the opposition channel Mozhem Obyasnit on Telegram, Nabiullina informed Putin of her willingness to continue in her position until the end of her term, provided that martial law is not declared and the country's borders are not closed, which are steps believed to accompany a new military mobilization to increase troop numbers in Ukraine. The source added that she "informed the president of her position and then diplomatically cited illness, and she is waiting for his response."
In the same context, Russian anti-war economist Vyacheslav Shiryayev reported from other sources that security guards have been lifted from Nabiullina's home, noting in a conversation with the opposition channel Breakfast Show that her absence from the St. Petersburg Forum may be linked to discontent within the Kremlin due to her stance on Putin's policies.
Additionally, Vyacheslav Markhayev, a member of the Communist Party, called on Russian authorities to present a clear plan to end the war, warning of serious internal repercussions. He wrote on social media, "The time for illusions is over, and the country stands on the brink of social explosion." He also blamed the Kremlin leadership for the losses on the front, describing their performance as ineffective, in a stance considered one of the rare direct criticisms of Putin, which until recently were deemed nearly impossible.
Nabiullina is classified as part of the relatively "liberal" trend within the Russian administrative apparatus, and she was the first woman to head the Central Bank in a country of the G8, before Russia was excluded from this group following the annexation of Crimea.
In 2022, during her first public appearance after the start of military operations in Ukraine, Nabiullina drew attention by appearing entirely in black clothing; raising speculations that she was in mourning. However, she did not make any statements clarifying her stance on the war, and it was not known at that time whether that appearance held political or personal implications.