Ten years after the June 23, 2016 referendum that paved the way for the UK's exit from the European Union in January 2020, official data reveals profound changes in three main areas that shaped the Brexit campaign: migration, economy, and trade.
Migration was one of the key motivations for supporters of the exit, who pledged to regain control over borders and end the freedom of movement with the European Union.
Indeed, immigration from EU countries has significantly declined, with net arrivals from the EU dropping from about 253,000 in 2016 to 70,000 in 2020, before turning negative later as the number of Europeans leaving surpassed those arriving.
Conversely, immigration from outside the EU experienced a significant leap, with net arrivals rising from 90,000 in 2016 to nearly one million migrants in 2023, driven by new immigration laws that came into effect after Brexit.
By 2025, net immigration totaled around 308,000 people, almost all from outside the EU, in a clear shift reflecting a change in the makeup of immigration rather than a decline.
Economically, expectations before the referendum were divided between those who saw leaving as an opportunity to enhance economic independence and those who warned of negative repercussions from losing access to the single European market.
Data from the OECD shows that the UK economy performed in the early years after the referendum closely to its developed country counterparts, but began to gradually decline compared to economies like the United States and Canada from 2020.
Moreover, the UK's economic performance was slightly below the EU average at a time when the country was more significantly affected by the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, the UK economy recorded a relatively strong recovery in 2021 after officially leaving the single market, before returning to weaker performance compared to Europe in the years 2023, 2024, and 2025.
In trade, Brexit supporters bet on expanding trade relations with countries around the world, while opponents warned of losing the European market, the UK’s largest trading partner.
Figures indicate a decline in UK goods exports to the EU from £205 billion in 2016 to £185 billion in 2025 (adjusted for inflation), despite a temporary rebound following the pandemic.
Conversely, imports from the EU only fell slightly, leading to a widening trade deficit in goods with the bloc from £113 billion to around £140 billion.
The UK failed to compensate for this decline by increasing its exports to countries outside the EU, which remained relatively stable during the same period.
However, on the other hand, the services sector showed strong performance, with exports growing to various global markets, raising total UK exports from £765 billion in 2016 to £908 billion in 2025.
Yet, imports rose at a faster pace, leading to an increase in the trade balance deficit to around £65 billion, up £3 billion compared to 2016.