The Moroccan central bank decided to hold the key interest rate at 2.25% on Tuesday amid estimates that inflation is on track to achieve medium-term price stability objectives, supported by improved economic growth.
The central bank announced after its quarterly meeting that it expects average inflation to reach 1.5% in 2026, before rising to 2.1% in 2027, after hovering around 0.8% during the past two years.
Growth is expected to accelerate to 5.2% this year compared to 4.9% in 2025, supported by a rebound in agricultural production following heavy rainfall that ended a seven-year drought. Growth is expected to slow to 3.1% in 2027, assuming an average harvest season.
The current account deficit in Morocco is expected to widen to 4% of GDP in 2026 compared to 2.4% in the previous year, mainly due to rising energy imports.
The Moroccan central bank stated that the energy import bill is expected to rise by 26% to 135 billion dirhams ($14 billion) this year, highlighting the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, before declining to 114.4 billion in 2027.
The central bank also expects an increase in phosphate and fertilizer exports, remittances from expatriates abroad, as well as tourism revenues and foreign direct investment.
The central bank noted that foreign currency reserves are expected to rise to 542 billion dirhams ($57 billion) by 2027, covering just over six months of imports.