An analyst compares PlayStation's decision to what Apple did 18 years ago!
Daniel Ahmad, a senior analyst at Niko Partners, believes that Sony's decision to abandon physical discs for PlayStation games was not surprising, but just a matter of time. He compares this move to what Apple did when it removed the disk drive from its laptops, emphasizing that the real discussion today should not be about the discs themselves, but about players' rights in the digital age and what digital game licenses should offer them.
In a series of posts on platform X, Ahmad responded to a user who likened Sony's decision to the removal of the headphone jack from iPhones, clarifying that a more accurate comparison is when Apple abandoned the CD drive in MacBooks in 2008.
“Back then, many complained, but today hardly anyone talks about it, even in the early part of last decade, those complaints had almost disappeared.”
Ahmad asserts that current data explains why Sony is moving towards a digital future, noting that about 80% of full game sales on PlayStation have become digital, while the percentage exceeds 90% on Xbox.
To avoid any misunderstanding, he clarified that these figures include only digital games, but do not include downloadable content (DLC), in-game purchases, subscriptions, or free games, meaning that the actual reliance on digital stores may be greater.
He also rejected reliance on some sales data from Insomniac Games cited by defenders of physical discs, deeming it outdated and not reflective of actual sales to consumers, but rather sales shipped to stores, alongside the fact that Sony counts bundles that include a digital download code with the device as part of physical sales, which gives a misleading picture.
Ahmad sees that the ecosystem of gaming devices is almost entirely digital now, especially since many of the most popular games on PS5 are not even released on discs, and GTA 6 will join this trend.
He also noted that the digital version of PS5 is now achieving a sales rate exceeding 50%, even though about 70% of PS5 units sold so far have a disc drive.
According to Ahmad, the main reason behind Sony's decision is very simple: profits and market control.
Selling games digitally gives Sony and publishers higher profit margins, as it effectively eliminates the used game market, leading to the creation of a fully closed system controlled by the company, which means that the consumer will be the biggest loser in terms of freedom of choice and flexibility.
Ahmad links this trend to the challenges that the next generation of gaming devices will face, as he expects the price of new devices to exceed $1,000, which will prompt many players to hesitate before purchasing devices from day one.
Therefore, he believes that Sony will not focus on expanding its user base as much as it will focus on increasing profits from current users, which aligns with its recent statements to shareholders about focusing on maximizing returns from the current player base.
“Sony knows that PS6 will enter a market where device prices may exceed $1,000, and that the average player will think carefully before upgrading. So home consoles are no longer mass-market products priced at $199 as they once were; they are now targeting more passionate and willing-to-spend players.”
He sees this placing PS6 in a similar position to what PS5 Pro offered, as a device primarily aimed at the enthusiast player category, not the broader audience.
In a sarcastic comment, Ahmad said that Sony seems to be rephrasing the famous statement of former Xbox executive Don Mattrick, when he once said that anyone wanting to play without an internet connection could keep their Xbox 360.
According to Ahmad, Sony's message today seems to be:
“We already have a device that plays discs… and its name is PS5.”
While he is convinced that Sony will not backtrack on its decision, he criticized the way the company handled the announcement, believing that it could have avoided a significant portion of the backlash had it clarified its plans from the beginning.